Caution: Hope Smart Winnipeg

By no means am I going to win any popularity contests in Winnipeg with what I'm about to suggest. I'm going to offer an opinion, and not invent "sources" (my one shot at Gary Lawless for the day) to substantiate what I'm going to say, and hopefully after someone reads this, they will tell me if there is a legal basis one way or the other. It is merely speculation on my part of what could happen in the Phoenix Coyotes/Glendale/Relocation to Winnipeg fiasco.

Before I start, I want to qualify, I was one of the biggest Winnipeg Jets fans in the late 80's to mid 90's. Dale Hawerchuk was my favorite player, Bob Essensa was my favorite goalie, and Teemu Selanne to this day exemplifies how a first class professional athlete should conduct himself. Curt Keilback was my idol, Kris King was in my opinion a perfect captain, Dallas Drake was as solid of power forward as there was. Teppo Numminen was the most under-rated defenseman, Dave Ellett had the most important goal in the history of the NHL, and Stephane Beauregard should have been traded directly to the Chicago Blackhawks for Dominik Hasek*. Oh, and Mike Smith's worst move wasn't drafting Sergei Bautin, which was a colossal brain cramp, but was drafting Aaron Ward one pick ahead of Peter Forsberg. And the worst trade in Winnipeg Jets history was Dave Babych for Ray Neufeld. These are my opinions, and I'm sticking to them. You can't shake them out of me. But man, either way, I loved those Winnipeg Jets, I got angry when they lost, sad when they lost, and every regular season win felt as good as if WE had hoisted the Stanley Cup.

So now that I've qualified myself as a true Winnipeg Jets NHL fan, let me caution anyone willing to read this blog. Those of you who believe that Phoenix Coyotes will exit the NHL playoffs tonight, and Gary Bettman will announce relocation tomorrow are completely wrong. I'm not saying it won't happen eventually, but the chances still remain less than 50/50 as of right now.

It is my belief that the City of Glendale will do anything possible to prevent the Sale of The Coyotes to Matthew Hulsizer from falling through. In the same way Winnipeg media says "don't under estimate the will of the pesky Goldwater Institute", I'm suggesting Winnipeg shouldn't under estimate the will of The City of Glendale, the NHL, Gary Bettman, and Matthew Hulsizer. A lot will transpire before the day it's announced the NHL is returning to Winnipeg.

And in fact, one possibility that has yet to be publicly explored, hits a little bit close to home for Winnipeg sports fans.

Anyone who follows the Winnipeg Blue Bombers is aware that the Manitoba Provincial Government just loaned the Winnipeg Football Club $85Million to build a brand new stadium. Nobody suggested that they broke any laws to do so, and I for one don't think they did.

However, I must say I am not an expert on Arizona State Law. But what's stopping Glendale Arizona from loaning Matthew Hulsizer $100Million to complete his purchase of The Phoenix Coyotes? Forget about the issue of selling bonds, and recouping interest, and all that confusion that nobody seems to understand anyway. It could be as simple as Glendale getting $3.33M back annually for 30 years plus some agreed upon interest, that could come out of the parking revenue. Should Hulsizer fail to make a go of it as owner of the Coyotes in say 5 years, he sells the team for $170M or more, the first $100M comes back to Glendale, the next $70M that Hulsizer put in comes back to him, and he has to write off the losses of the operation. Would that be illegal? If it's illegal in Arizona, how was it legal in Manitoba when the Provincial Government did it for the Bombers? I didn't hear Winnipeg sports fans griping when that deal got signed, but holy Dinah will they gripe if Glendale takes a page from our book. To me it seems simple.

The only hope Manitoba Sports fans would have at that point is that the dreaded Goldwater Institute would be able to block the sale with a legal injunction. However would it qualify under the "Illegal Gift Clause" if it was an iron clad repayable loan? That's where legal advice is needed. And I do believe Goldwater would try, but I also believe the NHL would show a level of patience through Court proceedings if they believe there is a greater than average chance of a ruling in Glendale's Favor.

I've said since the beginning of March when Gary Lawless boldly went on TSN and told Canada, that "it was a matter of days not weeks", that this is Winnipeg's one and only window to secure an NHL franchise. If they don't get one for the 2011-2012 season it's unlikely another opportunity will present itself, barring NHL expansion. Why do I predict such a thing? As indicated by the announcement yesterday of a brand new agreement with NBC and Comcast, the NHL just locked a 10-year Broadcast Agreement that will see their revenues skyrocket from $80M per year to $200M per year. With such a stable agreement in place, so comes National Sponsorships. With the uncertainty of the NFL labor situation, big National companies will make decisions to spend their marketing money differently. UFC as brand will benefit. NBA as a brand will benefit. Male Targeted television programming will benefit. And so too will the NHL, which is experiencing record popularity in the United States thanks to outdoor hockey games, an exciting on ice product and names like Ovechkin, Crosby, Stamkos, and teams like the Blackhawks, Flyers and Red Wings.

As league revenues go up, Winnipeg's hopes go down.

I hope that I am wrong. And maybe my personal effort to be realistic is influenced by a pessimistic outlook. But, my life experience has taught me, that when you hope for something and it wasn't likely from the start, you created your own misery.

I do look at Mark Chipman as a complete hero. Nobody else in this town would have ever tried to bring the NHL back. He's done everything 100% by the book, and he's someone this City can be very proud of. And he deserves to own an NHL franchise, and would be far better at doing so than Eugene Melnyk in Ottawa, and about a dozen US based owners. I'm hopeful he gets that chance, but I'm only guardedly optimistic.

Darren Ford and the Jetsowner.com message forum will say that I don't want the NHL to return. And that my negativity somehow influences the final outcome. I only wish I had that kind of power with my opinions. If that was the case, I'd swear that I'm going to win Friday's Super 7.

*In 1992 Stephane Beauregard was traded by Winnipeg to Buffalo for Christian Ruuttu. Beauregard was then traded by Buffalo to Chicago for Dominik Hasek. Beauregard ended up, all during the same summer keep in mind, getting traded back to Winnipeg for Christian Ruuttu. So Winnipeg could have just traded Stephane Beauregard to the Hawks for Hasek and the World would have been a much better place I think.

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